The COD Decline Story
Cash on Delivery has been in decline across MENA. The numbers tell the story:
- 2020 β 41% of MENA e-commerce orders were COD
- 2022 β 30% COD
- 2024 β 22% COD
- 2025 β 20% COD regional average
That is a 50% drop in 4 years. Yet COD is far from dead.
Why COD Is Still Dominant in Some Markets
The MENA average hides massive country-level differences:
- Algeria β 95% COD (barely changed)
- Morocco β 65-75% COD
- Tunisia β 55-65% COD
- Egypt β 45-55% COD
- UAE β 20-30% COD
- Saudi Arabia β 30-40% COD
North Africa is where COD remains king. And those markets are growing 25-30% annually.
Drivers of Change
- Fintech growth β Mobile wallets, local payment gateways
- Government push β Digital payment incentives, cashless policies
- Consumer trust β Each successful prepaid purchase builds confidence
- Platform influence β Amazon, Noon pushing customers to prepaid
Why COD Will Persist for Years
- Unbanked populations β 40-60% of North African adults have no bank account
- Trust deficit β Fear of fraud still dominates rural and older demographics
- Cash economies β Entire informal sectors still transact in cash
- Infrastructure gaps β Payment gateway fees too high for small sellers
Realistic projection: COD will remain above 40% in Algeria and above 25% in Morocco through 2030.
The Hybrid Future
The smart model is not 100% COD or 100% prepaid β it is both:
- COD with incentivized prepayment β 5-10% discount for prepaying
- Partial prepayment β Customer pays a deposit, rest on delivery
- WhatsApp wallet top-up β Store credit for repeat customers
- COD for new customers, prepaid for returning
What Smart Sellers Should Do Now
- Invest in COD management β The market is huge and will remain so
- Add prepayment options β Build the infrastructure for the future
- Track conversion rates β Move your customer base gradually
- Own customer data β Repeat buyers are your most profitable segment
- Use platforms that support both β Like CODRocket
Conclusion
COD is not dying in MENA. It is transforming. The sellers who will win the next decade are those who master COD operations today while building the bridge to a hybrid future.
CODRocket is built for both worlds β start free.
